Actionable insights on the political economy of Myanmar
About Us
Established in 2024, Catalyst Economics harnesses the fifty years of collective experience of its three founders to provide insights about Myanmar’s political economy and help stakeholders apply them to strategies that drive sustainable development.
Our goal is to spur new thinking about Myanmar’s complex challenges by bringing deep economic understanding to Myanmar’s important political, conflict and human rights questions.
Our work is defined by the depth of our knowledge – technical, contextual, and relational – and our ability to bring these components together. We look not just at what can be done, but how to do it in the context.
Our work is shaped by constant engagement with partners and stakeholders. It seeks to offer practical, context-specific inputs and options and inform locally-driven dialogues.
Our Team
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Jared Bissinger
RESEARCH LEAD
Jared Bissinger is a development economist with extensive experience leading research projects and authoring high-level reports for UN agencies, NGOs and others. He has a decade and a half of experience working on Myanmar, as well as other countries in the Asia-Pacific region and globally. He provides analysis and research in economic policy, private sector development, business environment and social & inclusive development, and their intersection with politics, conflict, and other issues. Jared holds a PhD in economics from Macquarie University. He is a Visiting Fellow at the Myanmar Studies Program at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. Jared is American and lived in Myanmar from 2011 to 2017.
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Nyantha Maw Lin
CONTEXT & INITIATIVES LEAD
Nyantha Maw Lin is an analyst and advisor with extensive experience in government affairs, public policy and political risk assessment in Myanmar. Nyantha is the founder of nonprofit Anagat Initiatives. He is a 2018 Eisenhower Global Fellow. Nyantha holds a BA in international relations from Carleton College. Nyantha is Myanmar.
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Romain Caillaud
OPERATIONS LEAD
Romain Caillaud is a risk and reputation management consultant with extensive experience advising corporations and nonprofits on strategic intelligence and public affairs. Romain has over 15 years of experience working on Myanmar and other Asian countries including Japan where he is a resident. Romain is a 2023 Eisenhower Global Fellow and an Associate Fellow at the Myanmar Studies Program at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. Romain holds an MA in international affairs from Sciences Po Paris. Romain is French and lived in Myanmar from 2008 to 2015.
Our Work
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Current Insights
Providing analysis on Myanmar’s economy and political economy and its intersection with politics, society and human rights
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Long-term Perspectives
Informing thinking and dialogue about a future political economy that drives inclusive development
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Foundations
Contributing to a shared understanding of economics and political economy through knowledge-sharing and capacity building
Publications & Media
November 5, 2024 - https://fulcrum.sg/myanmars-agricultural-sector-under-the-sac-an-uncertain-future/
Catalyst Economics' co-founder and research lead Jared Bissinger published an analysis of Myanmar's agricultural sector since the 2021 military coup for ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute: “The expansion of conflict, rising input prices, increasing price controls, and anecdotal evidence of reduced planting suggest challenges ahead for Myanmar’s agriculture sector."
October 17, 2024 - https://www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/iseas-perspective/2024-86-the-state-administration-council-and-the-restyling-of-myanmars-economy-by-jared-bissinger/
Catalyst Economics' co-founder and research lead Jared Bissinger writes on winners and losers in the economy of post-coup Myanmar for ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute: “While businesses and individuals in post-coup Myanmar have generally fared poorly due to economic decline, some businesses have survived or grown. Of these, some – including those owned by the regime, key leaders and their families – have exploited their positions and connections since the coup for significant financial benefit. Others have grown not because of their relationships with the military but because of their business characteristics, business model, managerial initiative, or other circumstances.”
October 7, 2024 - https://www.economist.com/asia/2024/10/17/myanmars-military-junta-has-conjured-up-a-crazy-currency-system
Catalyst Economics' co-founder and research lead Jared Bissinger's recent analysis on forex dynamics in Myanmar for ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute was referenced in an article by The Economist: “"In the 12 months ending in June, the Tatmadaw, the army that overthrew Myanmar’s elected government in 2021, earned Ks6.4trn ($1.8bn) from the fx market, according to a recent analysis by Jared Bissinger. [...] The result is that a third of exporters’ earnings are syphoned off to the regime, calculates Mr Bissinger."
August 23, 2024 - https://fulcrum.sg/lagging-wages-hurting-myanmars-garment-workers-and-undermining-the-industry/
Catalyst Economics's co-founder and research lead Jared Bissinger published an article for ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute on how lagging wages in the garment sector in Myanmar are hurting workers and the industry: “The low wages in Myanmar’s troubled garment sector are just one indicator of how badly the political upheaval and violence have affected people’s lives. Foreign garment brands and factories still in-country should consider workers’ views that they stay but increase wages.”
August 20, 2024 - https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmars-junta-is-funding-its-war-through-forex-scams-economists-say.html
Catalyst Economics's research lead and co-founder Jared Bissinger provides comments for an article in The Irrawaddy that references his recent reports on the forex manipulation by the Myanmar junta and on trade risks and opportunities in border areas in the current conflict context: ““These forex controls give the Myanmar military widespread power and opportunities for profit. Some discounted forex likely goes to private companies that facilitate military-related imports,” [Bissinger] said. “Some discounted forex does go for legitimate imports, including fuel for civilian use. But getting that forex requires permission from the regime, which can entail a long wait or use of connections.”
August 4, 2024 - https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3273004/myanmars-economy-sinks-deeper-quagmire-junta-extends-coercive-control
Catalyst Economics's co-founder and operations lead Romain Caillaud's commentary for ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute on the dire state of the Myanmar economy has been re-published by the South China Morning Post: “The State Administration Council’s (SAC) coercive and controlling approach to the economy does not bode well for Myanmar’s mid- to long-term prospects. In the past quarter, conflicts in Rakhine and Shan States have intensified, and humanitarian crises nationwide have worsened. These issues have compounded the negative impacts of the SAC’s economic policies, which seek to secure the junta’s interests through control and coercion.”
July 29, 2024 - https://fulcrum.sg/myanmars-economy-deeper-in-the-quagmire/
Catalyst Economics's co-founder and operations lead Romain Caillaud published a commentary for the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute on Myanmar's mounting economic challenges: “China is not alone in its concern that the current quagmire in Myanmar would increasingly threaten its economic interests. Battles continue to rage across Myanmar, and the impacts of the intensifying conflict are increasingly spilling over borders, negatively impacting the economies and people of several of Myanmar’s neighbours. The sense of gloom and doom also continues for Myanmar’s economy as the coup wears on.”
July 23, 2024 - https://fulcrum.sg/myanmars-trade-takes-a-turn-for-the-worse/
Catalyst Economics's co-founder and research lead Jared Bissinger published a commentary for ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute, which looks at how trade in Myanmar is evolving under the SAC: “While Myanmar’s trade increased significantly in 2022, the drivers of this were unsustainable. Since then, the longer-term implications of Myanmar’s trade regulations have started to show, compounded by the effects of prolonged conflict and a conscription law that have had significant economic implications. Together, these developments and other structural changes in the economy suggest that Myanmar’s trade performance is set for an extended and durable downturn that the current military rulers will not be able to reverse."
July 11, 2024 - https://fulcrum.sg/myanmars-military-funds-its-war-through-forex-policy/
Catalyst Economics's co-founder and research lead Jared Bissinger published a commentary for ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute that analyses how the junta has weaponised forex policy: “Myanmar’s military regime is increasingly utilising foreign exchange policy to extract funding, which threatens to hasten economic decline. It is important to find avenues for economic activity outside the system for the benefit of Myanmar’s people.”
Catalyst Economics's co-founder and research lead Jared Bissinger published a report for ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute that outlines the risks and opportunities in terms of border trade emerging from recent battlefield gains by anti-junta forces in Myanmar: “Since the start of Operation 1027, Myanmar’s resistance groups have gained control over large parts of key overland trade routes and a number of important border crossings, fundamentally changing the realities in the control of border trade. Despite these losses, the State Administration Council (SAC) retains control-of-trade-related institutions that are vital for accessing an international trading system characterized by state-to-state interactions—giving them significant influence over trade even if they do not control trade routes and border crossings.”